USDJPY Technical Analysis, October 8, 2020

Exclusive Markets Analysts
Exclusive Markets Analysts


Technical Outlook:

USDJPY seems to have carved a meaningful higher low around 104.00 levels recently and is holding well above the potential support. The currency might be preparing to push through 107.00/50 mark in the near term, and confirm with respect to price action that a meaningful bottom is in place.

USDJPY bulls might be poised to remain in control from here and push through 111.75 highs over the next several weeks. The entire wave structure is as follows: The rally between 101.18 through 111.75 in March 2020 could be defined as either Wave (1) or (A).

The subsequent drop towards 104.00 has been corrective A-B-C, and might be labelled as Wave (2) or (C). Also note that the correction had reached just below fibonacci 0.618 retracement of Wave (1) which is seen around 105.20 levels respectively. It bounced from 104.00 mark recently and is seen to be trading close to 106.00 for now.

If the above structure holds well, USDJPY might be set to rally towards 111.75 at least, as Wave (3) or (C) progresses. Immediate resistance is seen towards 107.00/50, followed by 108.20 and 109.85, while support is around 104.00 respectively.

A push above 107.00/50 would confirm that bulls are back in control and should remain poised to push towards 110.00 and higher, going forward. Only a drop below 104.00, would change the bullish structure over the near term.

Furthermore, the recent rally between 104.00 and 106 looks to be an impulse wave. USDJPY might drop lower to correct and find support around 105.00 before resuming higher again.

Trading Strategy:

Long against 104.00, targeting 111.75

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