EURUSD Technical Analysis, September 21, 2020

Exclusive Markets Analysts
Exclusive Markets Analysts


Technical Outlook:

EURUSD has been drifting sideways since last couple weeks after having print highs around 1.2010 mark. Intraday levels to watch out for are 1.1920 and 1.1950 respectively for bearish bounce. A drop below 1.1737 would confirm that bears are back in control and that currency is heading lower.

EURUSD had rallied from 1.0636 lows through 1.2010 highs in September 2020. The above rally had clearly sub divided into 5 waves, which implies a meaningful corrective drop should be followed. The fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire rally is seen through 1.1150/60 mark.

A drop towards 1.1150/60 remains possible before EURUSD finds some support. A bullish bounce there, would resume rally towards 1.2555 levels, going forward. That would complete a 5-3-5 wave structure according to the Wave Principle.

Alternately, it is possible that the above impulse wave (1.0636 through 1.2010) could be a part of an expanded flat corrective wave structure. Also note that the rally has stalled just above fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the drop between 1.2555 and 1.0830 levels.

If the alternate count works out, EURUSD should turn lower towards 1.0636 over the next several weeks. Either way, bears are inclined to resume lower from here in the form of a corrective drop or a trend reversal. Immediate resistance is seen through 1.2010, while support is around 1.1700 respectively.

The short term wave structure suggests EURUSD might have already carved a lower degree Wave 1 between 1.2010 and 1.1754 earlier. Bulls might be working on a potential corrective wave, which could terminate around 1.1930/50 in the next few days.

Trading Strategy:

Short against 1.2010, target remains open.

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