EURUSD Technical Analysis, October 19, 2020

Exclusive Markets Analysts
Exclusive Markets Analysts

EURUSD:


Technical Outlook:

EURUSD might be preparing to push through 1.1850-1.1900 handle to complete its counter trend rally. The currency trades above 1.1700 handle for now as bulls remain poised to resume higher again. The proposed counter trend rally is not mandatory though.

EURUSD has carved an impulse wave between 1.0636 and 1.2010 handle between March and September 2020. Ideally, an impulse should be followed by at least a corrective drop. In this case, a 3 wave corrective drop might reach 1.1100/50 levels.

Also note that fibonacci 0.618 retracement of the entire rally between 1.0636 and 1.2010 is seen to be passing through 1.1165 levels. Hence, probability remains high for a bullish bounce if prices manage to drop through the above levels.

Alternately, if the above impulse rally was a part of an expanded flat corrective wave structure, EURUSD might be preparing to drop below 1.0636 levels in the next several weeks or months. We shall review the chart when prices manage to reach 1.1100/50 levels.

Looking at the lower degree wave structure, the drop between 1.2010 through 1.1610 is in 3 waves, hence corrective in nature. We cannot rule out the possibility of another 3 wave corrective rally which might push through 1.1850/1.1900 levels, before terminating.

Overall, EURUSD should remain in control of bears until prices stay below 1.2010 mark. Expect a lower high to be carved around 1.1900 handle before reversing lower again.


Trading Strategy:

Short against 1.2010, targeting at least 1.1100/50

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