EURUSD might have carved a meaningful top around 1.1450 mark last week or could print a high around 1.1500 before reversing lower. The currency is expected to drop lower from here or after taking out resistance at 1.1500.
EURUSD has been carving higher highs and higher lows since 1.0636 levels in March 2020. Looking into the wave counts again, EURO seems to have carved Waves 1, 2, 3 and 4 already. Potential Wave 4 termination was around 1.1167 levels.
The recent high at 1.1450 could be either Wave 5 termination, or Wave 5 under progress towards 1.1500 levels. Either way, a corrective drop should be soon underway and the first leg could be seen towards 1.1167 lows.
As an alternate count, EURUSD might have completed Wave 3 around 1.1450 levels last week. The entire rally from 1.0636 through 1.1450 could be seen as corrective, and EURO might resume lower below 1.0636 in the coming weeks. The alternate count remains less probable though.
Looking at the fibonacci ratios spread here, a drop towards 1.0900 remains high probability to complete the corrective wave. Also note that 1.0900 is close to fibonacci 0.618 retracement of previous rally as well. A bullish bounce remains high possible if prices manage to reach there.
Overall, EURUSD remains a good candidate to be sold on rallies through 1.1500 levels over the next few weeks as bears might want to remain in control.
Short against 1.1550, targeting 1.1167 and 1.0900
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